美銀美林:不預期香港零售銷售年底前能復甦
美銀美林發表的研究報告指,8月份香港零售銷售錄連續第七個月下跌,同時是有紀錄以來下跌幅度最大,銷貨量計算下跌25.3%,幅度較市場預期的17.8%為大,而銷貨價值計算則按年下跌23%,跌幅均大於市場預期。
按項目細分,旅客及本地消費均錄雙位數百分比的跌幅,當中奢侈品包括珠寶、鐘錶等反映旅客消費的指標按年下挫47.4%,而撇除奢侈品的零售銷售亦進一步下跌17%,主要受消費耐用品、衣物、鞋及百貨公司銷售下跌所拖累。
該行認為,零售銷售主因持續的示威活動及8月份旅客下跌39.1%所拖累,特別是來自中國的旅客於8月份大幅下跌42.3%,而7月份相關跌幅僅為5.5%,相信勢頭在9月份亦難以逆轉。
展望未來,該行不認為零售銷售表現在年底前會有所轉變,而訪港旅客表現繼持續走弱,加上人民幣弱勢及中國經濟增長放慢等亦為本港零售帶來影響。此外,該行關注本地消費者信心下跌以及失業率提升的問題,因為據傳媒報道近期亦有店舖關門而員工亦需放無薪假,倘失業率升以及收入增長放慢,或會為零售銷售帶來第二波負面影響。
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